Protest Outcomes Literature Review
Protests can affect public opinion, public discourse and voting behavior, but it’s less clear that protests directly influence policymaking. Specifically, impacts of protest on policy seems highly context dependent, on factors such as existing political structures and current public opinion. The effect sizes of protest on public opinion and voting behavior are somewhat small, yet quite significant in the realm of politics, with shifts of approximately 2-5% found via natural experiments. There is strong evidence that protest can be effective in North America and Western Europe, specifically within issues of civil rights, climate change, and social welfare. This resource argues that the evidence for protests inspiring short-term and medium-term change is much stronger than the evidence for long-term change—but that’s because of the difficulty of studying the direct effects of protests on long-term outcomes.